COVID-19 (SARS-COV-2) of 2019-2021

As of February 11, 2021 COVID-19 has killed almost 2.4 million globally.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by a new coronavirus first identified in Wuhan, China in 2019. The vast majority of deaths are in the frail elderly with multiple comorbidities.

Ioannidis, J. Cripps, S., Tanner, M. (2020). Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed. International Journal of Forecasting.
"Epidemic forecasting [i.e., modeling] has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures."